速写,钦州,赵文卓-心智探测仪,检测一个人的心智是否成熟

体育世界 · 2019-08-13

导入

从前史观念上来说,经过专门化的出产,国家之间能够完成更高的功率。当投入资源并别离出产不同的产品,两国都将完成各自利益的盈利。进一步,为了补偿因扫除其他产品的出产而发生的任何亏本,各国能够彼此买卖,然后防止将有限的资源用于一起出产过多的产品。经过这种方法,两国在取得所需的大部分或悉数产品的一起还能够取得剩余价值,然后完成速写,钦州,赵文卓-心智探测仪,检测一个人的心智是否老练双赢的局势。

一、自在买卖协议(NAFTA)的从前与现状

如上所述,买卖协议关于国家的昌盛至关重要。1993年公布的北美自在买卖协议(NAFTA)下降或取消了加拿大,墨西哥和美国之间的关税。例如,单辆轿车的出产要求轿车在墨西哥美国边境运送一百屡次,这就意味着同一辆轿车将会被重复收缴屡次关税。如此,若没有自在买卖,轿车的价格会远高于有自在买卖的现状。而近年来,由于某些政治原因,加拿大,墨西哥和美国之间的买卖同伴联络正在遭到要挟。这一要挟对北美自在买卖协议有效性以及商场预期形成的动摇,导致了生猪商场价格的急剧下降。这两个比如告知咱们,经过施行自在买卖方针(NAFTA、二代TPP)能够鼓励各国之间的买卖活动,并有助于前进买卖区域之间的商场功率。作为一个经济问题,关税是买卖的阻止,因而现在美国要退出自在买卖协议的决议对美国及其买卖同伴的经济位置和福祉都是有害的。

图1:2017年美国出口商场排名,来历:USDA FAS

下面经过一些数据进行阐明。1990年,美国别离供给了国际对小麦,大豆和玉米需求的25%,60%和70%。而到了2018年,美国的这一数据别离下降到了15%,25%和30%。这一持续下降的趋势使jorker得美国不再享有农产品国际霸主的先入者盈利,而这似乎是两次全球商场改变的成果。首要,乌克兰,阿根廷和巴西等国家正在迅速发展其技能,这些前进超越了美国,并协助它们在期货商场上取得了杰出位置。其次,跟着这些国家开端由于他们的出产力而遭到重视,他们的邦邻可能会想要成为其买卖同伴。这些国家将开端从其国家联盟中寻求资源,而不是只是依托从美国的进口。最近,由于回绝跨太平洋同伴联络协议(TPP),美国实际上已将自己扫除在比如日本的牛肉和猪肉的出口商场之外,拱手将这一蛋糕送给澳洲。

图2:NAFTA对价格的影响---生猪价格随加拿大及墨西哥的潜在关税而改变,来历:CME Group

二、与我国买卖战的不确定要素

由于政治原因,美国最近加重了与我国的买卖战,对1000多种不同的产品征收25%的关税,但是这一经济制裁是两边的,然后导致美国进一步加重了由于前文退出TPP所导致的问题。为了报复,我国对美国征收了自己的关税。自我国施行壁垒关税以来,美国对我国的大豆出口量已从前几年的数百万吨削减到简直为零。由于我国需要从其圣蜜空气宝他国家收购作物,它无疑将寻求其他发展我国家的买卖协议,并使美国全球商场份额的损失成为永久性的现象。

现有买卖环境的剧变反映在产品商场的买卖价格和数量上。从2018年6月开端,玉米商场遭受急剧跌落,在两个月内从每桶10.50美元/蒲式耳跌落至8.50美元/蒲式耳以下。从那时起,玉米的动摇性也大大添加。在2019年4月,整个商场阅历了大幅震动。买卖量从均匀每分钟不到500笔买卖中迸发,到达每分钟超越5,000笔买卖。另一方面,价格全体跌落,从均匀1040.00美分跌落至均匀1005美分。数量的添加和价格的下降意味着参与者的长时刻失望心情。依据当时商场的这些改变,强壮的国际商场参与者估计的未来GDP将呈现最坏的改变。有痕迹标明,在现在现已尤为动摇的商场中施行关税无疑落井下石,GDP将预期下降超越0.5%。

图3:2014-2018年月末累积美对中大豆出口额,来历:CME Group

三、美国农产品商场心情及我国购买力状况

一起,从2017年之前三年的趋势来看,虽然美国对我国的大豆出口总量仍尤为很多,但即便买卖战在未来休战,美国的大豆出口量也不会回到2017年曾经的水平了。一份在2018年11月进行的美国农业心情目标查询显现,2016年6月至2018年6月之间的农业心情根本平稳小幅上升,而2018年6月后呈大幅下降趋势,这会影响未来短期内农人耕种及购买种子的数量,然后在长时刻内影响美国农产品期货的价格。

美国变弱的位置意味着其玫琳凯之窗苹果手机版他国际竞赛对手实力增强,跟着美国的货品变得相对更廉价,国际社会资本因而涌入美国。但是,统计数据再次指向相反的状况。自2011年以来,虽然商场条件遍及改进,但我国的零售销售额仍在下滑。这标明我国经济也面对财务压力,这是美国在企图持续与他国买卖时面对的另一个危险。自2018年以来,我国的零售最强魔法师的隐遁方案额没有添加,标明经济阻滞不前。依据这些商场状况,强壮的国际商场参与者估计的未来国内出产总值(GDP)现已转为最坏状况。

图4:2018-2019年美对中出口大豆额

图5:大豆价格在两个月内从$10.50/bushel下降到$8.50/bushel,数据来历:CME Group

四、微观经济状况以及未来预期

农业期货商场正在阅历一个全新的竞赛年代。南美洲和黑海等区域现已开端成为满意国际农业需求的中心舞台,并开端夺取美国在这些商场的前史性优势。国家的出产力和功率树立在他们与其他国家和谐作业的才能之上。但是,急进的中美的买卖战的呈现,再加上新式商场的技能前进,现已导致美国商场变得越来越不稳定。曾经强有力的微观经济活动首要目标一向与前史形式不一致。例如,近年来失业率一向很低,但全体薪酬没有增加; 规范普尔500指数创下前史小姐威客官网新高,但从长时刻来看商场并没有在补偿了几年前的下行后增加过多。实质上,美国商场的方向和增加存在很大的不确定性,由于前史上微弱的经济目标现在展现出与实际不符的定论。

五、总结

鉴于一切买卖大国GDP的下行,各国有必要仔细开端处理买卖壁垒。从政治上讲,国际联络的主题往往是一个困难的问题,但改进阻滞和现在落后的买卖环境所带来的优点大大超越了暂时的困难。各国之间的买卖自身便是一个非常复杂的问题,但经过树立活跃的联络并抓住机会来加强买卖同伴联络,比较于回绝协作,每个国家都将在更大程度上获益。并且如最近的研讨所示,假如不断对其他国家加征买卖壁垒,发生的负面经济影响即将花费更长时刻的时刻来补偿并康复为美国原有的位置。

英文对照

Tariffs & The Changing Agricultural Landscape

Naiwen Hu and David Hung

Historically nations are better off overall when they specialize in the production of a specific set of goods instead of the production of all possible goods. To make up for any deficits incurred by excluding the production of other goods, nations can trade with each other, thereby avoiding expending their limited resources on producing too many goods at once. On the whole, nations entering into such trade arrangements enjoy far more benefits than a nation producing goods solely for its own consumption.

The North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, enacted in 1993, reduced or removed tariffs between Canada, Mexico, and the United States. F哗啦啦商户中心or example, the production of a single car requires that the car be transported across the Mexican American border over one hundred times. That is to say, the price of a car would be far higher without free trade than with free trade. As another example, political conditions threatened the trade partnership between Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The threats against the continued existence of NAFTA’s effectiveness resulted in a precipitous drop of contract prices in the hog market. In short trading between countries is encouraged 尹志平吮小龙女乳by implementing free tr智盘体系ade policies and helps to increase the efficiency of markets between trading regions. As an economic matter, tariffs are trade barriers and are therefore detrimental to a nation’s, and its trading partners’, economic status and wellbeing.

In 1990, the United States supplied 25%, 60%, and 70% of the world’s demand for wheat, soybean, and corn, respectively. By 2018, the United States supplied to the world only 15%, 25%, and 30% of those same commodities, respectively. The decline seems to be the result of two shifts in the global markets. Firstly, nations such as Ukraine, Argentina, and Brazil have been rapidly developing their technology. These a速写,钦州,赵文卓-心智探测仪,检测一个人的心智是否老练dvances have outpaced that of the United States and has helped them to gain both prominence in花宗 the commodities markets. Secondly, as such nations begin to garner attention for their productivity, neighboring states may seek to become trade partners. These nations will begin to seek resources from among themselves instead of relying upon the United States for imports. Recently, with the rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the United States has effectively excluded itself from participating in these markets.

Further exacerbating its own problems, the United States has recently entered into a trade war with China, levying a 25% tariff against over 1,000 different goods. In retaliation, China lev林河市ied its own tariffs against the United States. Since the implementation of tariffs the United States’ export of crop to China has been reduced from millions of metric tons, in previous years, to virtually zero. As China快穿有肉 will need to source its crops from other nations, it will undoubtedly seek trade 荜茇怎样读agreements from other, developing nations, and perpetuates the loss of the United States’ global market share.

The upheaval of the existing trading environment is reflected in both the trading prices and volume of the commoditi本道es markets. Starting in June of 2018, the corn market suffered a drastic decline, dropping from $10.50/bu to under $8.50/bu over the course of two months. Since then, the volatility of corn has also increased greatly. In April of 2019 the markets as a whole witnessed quite a shock. Trading volume exploded from an less than 500 trades per minute on average to over 5,000 trades per minute on average. Prices, on the other hand, witnessed an overall downward movement, dropping from an average of 1040.00 cents to an average of 1005 cents. Generally speaking, when price condi速写,钦州,赵文卓-心智探测仪,检测一个人的心智是否老练tions favor soybean production over corn production, farmers achieve greater benefit by allotting their resources to soybean production. However, statistics indicate that farmers are moving in the opposite direction by sacrificing valuable acreage in favor of corn production. At the same time, even though it is to their advantage to dedicate more resources to the production of soybean crop.

The United States’ weakened position would seem to imply a strengthening of other international competitors, thus an influx of capital from the international commun速写,钦州,赵文卓-心智探测仪,检测一个人的心智是否老练ity, as the United 速写,钦州,赵文卓-心智探测仪,检测一个人的心智是否老练States’ goods become relatively more affordable. However, statistics again point to the contrary. Sinc香港九龙六合彩e 2011 China has had declining retail sales despite generally improving market conditions, year over year. This indicates that China’s economy is also feeling financial pressure and this is another risk the United States faces as it attempts to continue trading with others. Since 2018, China’s retail sales have not increased, indicating stagnation within the economy. Based on these market conditions the projected future Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, of powerful international market participants has taken a turn for the worst. There is indication that the GDP across the board will fall over 0.5% with the implementation of tariffs in the already volatile market.

The agricultural world is now witnessing a new era of competition as regions such as South America and the Black Sea have begun taking center stage i顺风妇产科美达n supplying the world’s agricultural needs and begun usurping the United States’ historical foothold in these markets. The productivity and efficiency of nations is built upon their ability to work in coordination with others. However, the advent of an aggressive trade war, compounded with technological advancements in emerging markets have caused the United States’ markets to become increasingly unstable. Formerly strong primary indicators of macroeconomic activity have been acting inconsistent to historical patterns. For example, unemployment rates have been very low in recent years but overall wages have not grown; the S&P 500 has made record highs, but the overall market has not grown as much as it has in previous years. In essence there is a great amount of uncertainty regarding the direction and growth of the United States market, as historically strong economic indicators are now presenting conflicted conclusions.

In light of the downward projections of GDP for all trading powers it is imperative for nations to begin resolving trade barriers in earnest. Politically speaking, the subject of international relations is often a difficult one, but the benefits to ameliorating the stagnating and, currently, backward moving trade environment greatly outweigh the temporary difficulties. Trade between countries is inherently a very intricate matter but by establishing positive relations and taking advantage of the offers and opportunities to strengthen trade partnerships and relations, each country will benefit itself to a greater degree than by refusing to work with other nations. No nati速写,钦州,赵文卓-心智探测仪,检测一个人的心智是否老练on stands to gain from denying each other of resources and, as seen in recent studies, may incur negative economic effects if trade barriers are continually levied 牛六记against other nations.

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